Did DK reach the ceiling? - Gréczy's blog

greczy    I notice some self-certification of some analysts' essays. The majority of them predicted that the Democratic Coalition wouldn't get into the European Parliament. There were some news websites that publicized the mandate-estimate the moment the ballot boxes closed. They predicted that LMP and E14-PM would get into the EP but DK wouldn't. We saw the voters' opinion after that.

The prepared clichés (sending Gyurcsány to Kötcse (his country side home), saying that Gyurcsány is over) went into the dustbin, now a new verdict is coming: "DK took all of its voters on 25 May. There is not a single more. It is true that a 1% sect become a 10% European party, but never mind".

Another argument is that we are slicing the same cake and DK did not persuade anyone, it just steals voters from MSZP.

Now let's get a closer look at that. Please show me a study, which proves that DK's voters promised that they would be more active on the European election than any other party's voters. This would be interesting, as these studies did not indicate the shifts taking place on the left side. If it is true that - and it is - Fidesz, Jobbik and LMP received half the votes that they did during the parliamentary elections why would DK reach the ceiling alone? Would it not be possible that DK brought half of its supporters to vote as well? And what about E14-PM, which was also underestimated?

Regarding the cake, let's assume that there was a time when the 2.6 million voters shared the left-wing liberal cake, 2.3 million MSZP supporters and 300 thousand SZDSZ (former liberal party) supporters.

I am aware of the fact that the world changed a lot since 2006 but there was a time when those people chose the left-wing - at that time even Ferenc Gyurcsány. Just as they went to Fidesz and Jobbik, so can they come back as well. Why this defeatism? This 1.3 million cake could be re-baked to a bigger one - we will see how - because it was bigger before.

There is no such thing as a ceiling. The party system is on the move. DK is on the map and it is an important actor. This was proven last Sunday and we will see the rest.