I still insist on the importance of the upcoming March 15th celebrations (a national holiday in Hungary). The recent happenings in the political scene confirm my feelings.
There was the massive pro-government demonstration a week ago. Fidesz showed they still can take lots of people to the streets. Nobody can think Orbán will use only secret tunnels. (Orbán left the Opera via a secret tunnel after the gala held to welcome the new constitution because of the protesters). But Fidesz' situation has just gotten worse otherwise. The EU launched its legal actions against Hungary, and the issue of the IMF deal remains unsolved. Fidesz has lost tens of thousands of young people because of newly introduced high university fees. Pensioners' benefits have been cut back seriously. These austerity programs have nothing to do with the IMF.
The picture is getting clearer on the opposition's side as well. LMP will follow the Schiffer way. (Schiffer was the LMP group leader until the first days of January when he stepped down. He had a policy that disabled any real co-operation with other political parties in opposition.) LMP said they would rather co-operate with civil movements. It seems they did not mean the new Szolidaritás, a fast growing civic movement with trade union origin and had the idea to set up the 'Opposition Roundtable'. (The 'original' Opposition Roundtable was a discussion forum for the democratic political powers at the time of transition). There are many obstacles on the road LMP has chosen to go down. LMP will meet decisions situations in which they have no choice but to co-operate with MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party) and DK (Democratic Coalition). If they vote together with these parties, their anti co-operation policy will be questioned.
MSZP's sky looks cloudy nowadays. Tibor Szanyi (a key MSZP figure in Budapest, and one of the few MPs on the left who could win a mandate in local district on the 2010 elections) is a candidate for the presidential position in MSZP. Initially he stated that Attila Mesterházy (current MSZP president and MSZP's prime minister candidate in 2010 elections) had been doing a great job, and he just wanted to be 'the first activist'. On the next day Szanyi stated confidently that he was going to win the party elections. If Szanyi wins, that will qualify Mesterházy's work. Otherwise I am curious to see the difference between Szanyi's and Mesterházy's political programs.
Also, there are other conflicts on MSZP's top level. All of them show the main rupture was not between Gyurcsány and the others in the party. (Gyurcsány left MSZP with his platform last year and he established a new party called Democratic Coalition). Current fights within MSZP show that it was not Gyurcsány's presence that was the problem when MSZP top dogs were talking about the party's crisis.
Democratic Coalition is getting stronger and becoming more confident. According to the researchers they have a quarter million supporters. They garnered that support in three months time, even though there was pressure and attacks from both sides. There are no personal conflicts in Democratic Coalition. 70% of the party members have never been a member of any other party.
Jobbik, the far right party, has been quite active recently. Jobbik's leader stated clearly that Jobbik was not a democratic party. They confirmed their distance from Fidesz. Gábor Vona, chairman of Jobbik, sees disappointment with Orbán behind the declining living standards. Anyway, he knows that last weekend's 'peace protest', the pro-government rally was marching behind Jobbik's slogan ('We are not going to be a colony', referring to their dislike towards EU's and foreigners' political and economical influence).