Turn and dizziness
Thursday, 08 December 2011 13:33
The system of Fidesz’s governance changed significantly from the middle of November. This does not bother the ruling parties or their core voters. But the situation is getting more and more serious. There is a solution but it seems difficult to reach.Viktor Orbán stated in the Parliament in July 2010 that the IMF-agreement signed in 2008 is over. He did not criticize the IMF but the situation in which Hungary was forced to rely on the IMF. And of course the government, which could not avoid taking out the loan. With this criticism he became aligned to the policy that under his leadership Hungary cannot get into the same situation. And yet it did.The arguments of the government collapsed after the initiation of the new IMF-talks. The Ministry for National Economy claimed that we are at the beginning of a new era which is dedicated to growth and in this new era the possibility to co-operate with the IMF is open. Even if we set aside the expected growth rate in 2012 it is still unclear why the official government declarations were so negative about the IMF two or three days before the announcement of this new era. Then Lajos Kósa, parliamentary representative of Fidesz said that we face unexpected circumstances on a daily basis so we should adapt, he also asked whether it was likely that Berlusconi’s government will collapse. The answer: certainly yes.The case is the same with Hungary and the IMF: experts have been talking about the necessity of IMF’s help for weeks but the government did not listen. In fact Viktor Orbán pursued a goal – to finance public dept exclusively from the money markets - which he could not achieve.Unfortunately the world’s most important financial capitals do not believe the Hungarian government. This was confirmed by the downgrading which occurred one week after the government initiated talks with the IMF. It is also a sign that the government is losing its credibility that György Matolcsy, minister of national economy was withdrawn from the negotiation team because Orbán does not want to risk failure.The government’s austerity measures and the additional funds created by these measures do not help to induce the economy. It is the domestic political situation’s peculiarity that this does not erode the ruling parties’ support. On other hand the disappointed voters do not gather under another party’s flag. This could help the government to survive. Moreover Fidesz tops its system changing activity with the modification of the electoral system, the compensation of winner candidates, the abolition of the participation threshold and the registration of voters. It seems that the only option is to defeat Fidesz with a two-third majority with the help of the new election law. This will be extremely difficult but no other democratic opposition alternative is valid.Zoltán Lakner.; Vasárnapi Hírek;December 4. 2011.