Even back then, in the wake of the 2002 general elections, 5-6 percent of polled voters decided not to disclose their disapproval of the government: in fact that was the cause behind the contradiction of Fidesz’s expected victory (forecast by most research institutes) and the party’s actual loss of the elections. Although Orbán’s first government only teetered on the verge of parliamentary democracy and democratic principles; its greed, unscrupulousness, exaggerated ideological fervor and the regular marches by its cockaded supporters intimidated many citizens: they expressed another party preference to the surveyor at home than they did when standing alone in a curtained polling booth. Today, the vast majority of Hungarian society is scared.Inflation took off, and the NBH (National Bank of Hungary) had to raise interest rates. Despite bombastic promises, unemployment has been growing since last autumn; the number of unemployed increased by almost 100,000 in January 2011 due to the cancellation of public works programs initiated by the previous administration. While investment rates are on the increase in all countries that show recovery from the crisis, Hungary posted an unexpected 8 percent decline in the fourth quarter of 2010. The budget deficit is already staggering: public deficit exceeded 81 percent of the annual target by February.Now Orbán’s regime is crushing between two millstones. On the one hand, there are the Western economic forces such as investors, financiers and money-lenders, in other words: reality; and, on the other hand, there is irrationality. The lies are now being exposed, the effect of previously effective communication techniques is now quite the opposite of what they intended, and the avalanche is slowly beginning to build up...By now, the reputation of Orbán and his regime has suffered catastrophic losses amongst all major Western political actors. As long as Orbán acts as the rotating president of the Council of the European Union, fulfilling the formal duties assigned to him in the first half of the year, he will not encounter public humiliation. However, after the presidency, he will become a real pariah as envisioned by the Washington Post already in summer 2010 (the cancellation of the EU summit in Gödöllő was just an early indication of what should be expected in the future). Sooner or later, this will become evident in Hungary as well – even for the lowest social classes. Today it is also clear that sailing with the ‘eastern wind’ was pure illusion. Orbán was ignominiously rejected in Moscow, while the Chinese simply set their traditional formal politeness aside last October. Since then, it has become clear that they have absolutely no intention to finance our public debt, thus ‘the Chinese card’ is nothing more than an unsafe bet.What consequence can be expected? I think even greater arrogance of power than before. ‘Minimum-wage commandos’, persecution of ‘political criminals liable for indebting the nation’, night police raids at discotheques ordered directly by the PM, imprisoning children etc. It is obvious that fear – and because of fear – hatred of the powers that be will grow. Orbán and his accomplices already committed so much cruelty, they made so many unscrupulous moves, violated so many principles, and crossed so many barriers that their conduct will certainly have consequences. There will be a backlash. I would say now the sooner the better. This unrestrained power, this stupid regime just cannot go on for long. Its financial and psychological resources will fall into a downward spiral after a while – then things will start to happen very quickly indeed. There will be a political implosion. What that actually means is not sure yet. The future is always unpredictable, but I am sure that it is not as distant as we previously dared to believe.József Debreczeni, Népszabadság, March 13, 2011

Last Updated on Thursday, 19 May 2011 12:18